Quantitative Case Studies

 

MUNICIPALITY SEGMENTED POPULATION CRIME INSIGHT

CHALLENGE:

A prestigious municipality had a staggering steady increase in the crime rate, which began to tarnish its reputation as a safe city for tourism and a good place for corporate business expansion investments. The municipality’s community service department needed to identify patterns and trends of the population to segment groups that were responsible for the majority of the crime so that programs & services could be devised to curtail the crime rate.

 

SOLUTION:

Conducted descriptive statistical and cross tabulation analyses on data derived from the municipality’s 2012Y, 2013Y & 2014Y flash reports (criminal activity report provided by the county sheriff’s office) to ascertain offender demographic, offense occurrences, number of offenses and time & day of offenses.

 

RESULTS:

Research revealed that the age group 18-24 (31.1%) commits the most crime in the municipality, followed by 13-17 at 22.1%. These findings allowed for the classification of the latter group, to include youth (age 7 or less) as the target group of interest, supported by the rationale that if this group was serviced, the crime rate committed by the age group 18–24 by default would decrease in future years.

 

Research revealed that the target group led in committals in ten (10) categories versus other offenders: Aggravated Assault (43.0%); Battery (28%); Burglary (45%); Criminal Mischief (56%); Disorderly Conduct (80%); Retail Theft (46%); Trespassing (32%); Underage Drinking (60%); Vehicle Burglary (49%) and Violation of Probation (53.7%).

 

Research revealed that the majority of the crime in the municipality occurring on Mondays was committed by the target group at 34% versus other offenders. The research revealed that the peak crime month of the target group are the months of November (36%) and December (32%) versus other offenders.

 

The results from the municipality’s crime descriptive statistic analysis suggest that the Community Service Department develop extra-curricular youth programs that cater to the age demographic of 7 17 and have the programs scheduled for Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays. Based on the research, the best time for these programs would be between the hours of 3 pm and 7:30 pm. The results also indicate a need for more program development concentrated during the months of October, November and December, as these are the peak crime months for the target group.

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